Executive Summary
ASCE’s May 29, 2026, article makes a narrow but important point as the Atlantic hurricane season opens: even if this year’s seasonal outlook is below normal, infrastructure risk is still rising because hurricanes and tropical storms are bringing more rain. The article distinguishes between uncertain long-run trends in hurricane counts and the much stronger scientific confidence that storms are getting wetter as the atmosphere warms. It then links that shift to real engineering consequences, including Hurricane Helene’s extreme inland rainfall, aging stormwater systems not sized for today’s precipitation, and the growing need to move from backward-looking rainfall standards to future-oriented design assumptions.
A Below-Normal Forecast Does Not Remove the Infrastructure Threat
ASCE opens with a reminder that seasonal activity forecasts and infrastructure consequences are not the same. NOAA’s National Weather Service outlook for 2026 calls for a below-normal Atlantic season, with 8 to 14 named storms and 3 to 6 hurricanes, compared with an average season of 14 named storms and 7 hurricanes. But the article argues that civil engineers cannot take much comfort from storm counts alone, because wetter storms are increasingly a consequential hazard for communities, drainage systems, roads, and homes.
Historical Hurricane Comparisons Are Harder Than They Seem
The 1960s and 1970s made it possible to track storms over open water. Carl Schreck of the North Carolina Institute for Climate Studies notes that the 1933 season still holds the record for Accumulated Cyclone Energy. He says the current active period began in the mid-1990s, but that roughly 30 years is still a short window for drawing strong long-term trend lines about hurricane activity itself.
Scientists Are More Confident About Wetter Storms Than About More Frequent Ones
According to the ASCE article, the science is firmer on rainfall. Schreck says researchers are much more confident that storms are getting wetter because a warmer atmosphere can hold more water, increasing the potential for rainfall. The article treats that as the clearest climate signal for engineers: even if storm frequency and intensity remain difficult to interpret, the rainfall burden associated with hurricanes is becoming harder to dismiss, shifting the practical design problem toward floodwater management as much as wind resistance.
Hurricane Helene Showed Why Inland Rainfall Now Demands Greater Attention
ASCE cites Hurricane Helene as the clearest recent case study. The article reports that Helene caused nearly $79 billion in damage in 2024 and dropped up to 31 inches of rain in parts of the North Carolina Appalachians, triggering destructive flooding and landslides. Schreck adds that more than half of hurricane deaths over the past decade were linked to inland rainfall, not just to coastal winds or surges. That matters because it broadens the geography of risk: the danger does not end at the shoreline, and resilience planning must account for rainfall-driven impacts far inland.
Aging Stormwater Systems Are Facing A New Rainfall Regime
The article then shifts from meteorology to engineering operations, using Alexandria, Virginia, as an example of the infrastructure problem now facing many older U.S. cities. Stormwater manager Daniel Medina says some of Alexandria’s pipes are more than 50 years old and were not sized for current rainfall conditions, while local planners describe a system built to older standards that now faces heavier precipitation and recurrent flooding. ASCE’s framing is that climate change is amplifying preexisting weaknesses: aging systems, historic urban imperviousness, and outdated design assumptions are colliding with wetter storms.
NOAA Atlas 15 Points Toward a More Forward-Looking Design Basis
One of the article’s most practical implications concerns design standards. ASCE notes that most engineering design standards and floodplain regulations still rely on NOAA Atlas 14, which is based on historical rainfall data through 2000. By contrast, NOAA’s Atlas 15, now in development, is expected to project precipitation trends through 2100. The article adds that under a 4.5 degrees Celsius warming scenario, some Virginia-focused rainfall estimates indicate increases of 18% to 20%, even though those figures have not yet been formally published in Atlas 15. The broader message is that infrastructure design is moving away from a rear-view-mirror approach based solely on past rainfall and toward a framework that accounts for future precipitation.
The Engineering Takeaway Is To Design For Water As Much As For Wind
The most important takeaway from ASCE’s reporting is that hurricane resilience is increasingly a stormwater and flood-management problem, not only a wind-loading problem. Engineers still have to work within uncertainty about how active a given season may be, but the article suggests they can no longer treat heavier rainfall as a secondary variable. As wetter storms place more stress on drainage, slopes, roads, and built-up urban systems, the design challenge is shifting toward infrastructure that can absorb, convey, and withstand more water than earlier generations of standards assumed.
Frequently Asked Questions
- What is ASCE’s main point as hurricane season begins? ASCE’s main point is that even a below-normal hurricane season can pose a growing infrastructure threat because storms are delivering more rainfall, increasing flooding, and straining drainage and stormwater systems.
- Does the article say hurricanes are definitely becoming more frequent? No. The article notes that scientists are cautious about claiming a clear long-term increase in hurricane activity, in part because storm records are difficult to compare between the pre-satellite and satellite eras. The stronger conclusion is that storms are getting wetter.
- Why is inland rainfall such a major concern in hurricane risk? The article reports that Hurricane Helene brought up to 31 inches of rain to parts of North Carolina and notes that more than half of hurricane deaths over the past decade were linked to inland rainfall. This means major hurricane impacts often extend well beyond coastal surge zones.
- Why are older cities especially vulnerable to wetter storms? ASCE points to Alexandria, Virginia, where some stormwater pipes are more than 50 years old and were not designed for today’s rainfall conditions. Older infrastructure can fail sooner when heavier precipitation overwhelms drainage capacity.
- Why does NOAA Atlas 15 matter to engineers? The article notes that Atlas 14 is still based on rainfall history through 2000, whereas Atlas 15 is expected to project precipitation trends through 2100. That makes Atlas 15 important because it could help communities design new infrastructure for future rainfall rather than only historical conditions.
(Source: Derouin, S. (2026, May 29). Wetter storms drive the need for resilient infrastructure as hurricane season opens. Civil Engineering Source, American Society of Civil Engineers.)
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