Part of a new industry series Moving the Future™: Climate Business Intelligence™ for Transportation Infrastructure
The Scale of Climate Exposure
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD, 2023) projects that by mid-century, global adaptation needs will exceed $4.3 trillion, with approximately one-third of this amount required for transportation assets. In the United States alone, the American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE, 2021) has identified a $1.2 trillion resilience gap between current infrastructure investment levels and the amount needed to maintain safe and reliable systems under future conditions. Many of these assets were designed for a climate that no longer exists, engineered to withstand historical averages rather than intensifying extremes.
Ports, for example, face dual threats from sea-level rise and stronger storm surges. The Port of Los Angeles and Long Beach, which together handle more than $14 billion in cargo each week, are projected to experience one foot of sea-level rise by 2050, posing a threat to critical operations and the viability of insurance (Port of Los Angeles, 2024). Meanwhile, inland transportation networks are increasingly exposed to inland flooding, drought-induced subsidence, and wildfire disruptions.
Air travel is also affected. The International Air Transport Association (IATA, 2023) reports that runway heat restrictions already affect 30 percent of global airports during summer months, reducing aircraft payload capacity by up to 15 percent and costing airlines $10–25 billion annually in lost efficiency. Rail systems face similar risks, including heat-induced track buckling and flash flooding, which have caused service delays resulting in costs of tens of millions of dollars per incident (Federal Railroad Administration, 2023).
Interconnected Dependencies and Systemic Risk
Transportation does not operate in isolation—it is a system of systems that interacts with every critical sector: energy, water, food, finance, and communications. When transportation networks fail, the impacts cascade. For instance, a port closure can strand energy exports, delay agricultural shipments, and interrupt manufacturing supply chains. During the 2021 floods in Germany, rail and highway damage disrupted auto production and logistics operations across Europe, contributing to a 1 percent GDP contraction that quarter (OECD, 2023).
The same interdependencies magnify risk in the United States, where 70 percent of freight tonnage moves by truck, yet trucking relies on functioning road networks, refineries, and distribution hubs (ATA, 2024). Disruptions in one mode propagate across others—an airport shutdown affects trucking deliveries, while a rail line outage increases port congestion.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
- What does climate exposure mean for transportation infrastructure? Climate exposure refers to the vulnerability of transportation assets, such as roads, bridges, ports, airports, and railways, to the physical impacts of future weather and climate extremes, including flooding, heat, and sea-level rise.
- Why is transportation infrastructure especially at risk? Transportation systems are spatially extensive and interdependent. When one component, such as a port, highway, or rail line, fails due to a climate event, disruptions cascade across logistics, trade, and supply chains.
- How does Climate Business Intelligence™ help manage these risks? Climate Business Intelligence™ combines climate science, data analytics, and AI modeling to quantify physical and financial risks, helping asset owners prioritize adaptation investments with measurable ROI.
- What is the estimated global cost of climate exposure in transportation? According to the OECD, adaptation needs for transportation assets will exceed 1.4 trillion dollars by mid-century, about one-third of global infrastructure adaptation costs.
- How can organizations prepare their assets for future climate extremes? By integrating climate risk intelligence into planning, engineering, and investment decisions aligned with frameworks such as ISSB, CSRD, and SB-261, organizations can future-proof critical transportation systems and sustain long-term resilience.
Ready to get started? To learn how ClimaTwin can help you assess the physical and financial impacts of future weather and climate extremes on your infrastructure assets, capital programs, and investment portfolio, please visit www.climatwin.com today.
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