The Planet’s Energy Balance Is Tilting Faster Than Expected
A new analysis visualized by Leon Simons of the Club of Rome shows that Earth is now absorbing 1.4 watts per square meter more energy than it radiates back into space. This rate of planetary heating exceeds recent projections from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and signals a worrying acceleration in global warming trends.
Drawing on NASA satellite observations, greenhouse gas concentration data, and reductions in atmospheric aerosols, the visualization highlights how declining pollution has unmasked the full force of greenhouse gases. As fewer aerosols reflect sunlight into space, more solar energy is retained, leading to increased ocean heat accumulation and destabilization of the planet’s climate system.
A Rapid Shift in Radiative Forcing
The data indicate that greenhouse gas forcing has increased to +4.1 W/m², while the net radiative imbalance —the difference between incoming and outgoing energy —now stands at approximately +3 W/m². Scientists warn that this means Earth is no longer warming in a gradual, linear fashion. Instead, the system is entering a period of nonlinear acceleration, where each year compounds more rapidly than the last.
This heightened energy imbalance intensifies ocean warming, ice melt, and extreme weather events, underscoring the urgency of cutting emissions and investing in adaptation. According to climate researchers, the feedback loops now in motion, from water vapor to cloud cover and ocean currents, could make stabilization increasingly difficult without immediate global action.
Why It Matters
The acceleration of Earth’s energy imbalance represents one of the most consequential signals in modern climate science. It directly connects atmospheric composition to rising physical and financial climate risks, affecting everything from insurance and infrastructure to agriculture and human health.
Monitoring this imbalance through tools like satellite-based climate analytics, digital twins, and AI-driven modeling will be critical to understanding where and how risks are intensifying, and where investments in resilience will deliver the most impact.
(Source: Seki, J. (2025, October 3). This graph shows what’s happening to our climate right now. Climate & Capital Media. www.climateandcapitalmedia.com/this-graph-shows-whats-happening-to-our-climate-right-now)
Ready to get started? To learn how ClimaTwin can help you assess the physical and financial impacts of future weather and climate extremes on your infrastructure assets, capital programs, and investment portfolio, please visit www.climatwin.com today.
© 2025 ClimaTwin Corp. All rights reserved worldwide.
ClimaTwin® is a registered trademark of ClimaTwin Corp. The ClimaTwin logos, ClimaTwin Solutions™, Climate Risk Intelligence™, Climate Business Intelligence™, Future-proofing assets today for tomorrow’s climate extremes™ are trademarks of ClimaTwin Corp. All trademarks, service marks, and logos are protected by applicable laws and international treaties, and may not be used without prior written permission of ClimaTwin Corp.
###