Executive Summary
In 2018, the National Academies published Thriving on Our Changing Planet: A Decadal Strategy for Earth Observation from Space. This roadmap identified the highest-priority science questions and the space-based observations needed to advance U.S. Earth science and support critical applications like climate modeling and weather prediction. Since then, the demand for actionable Earth observations has intensified as climate change accelerates and extreme weather events become more frequent and more damaging. A new 2024 midterm assessment, produced at NASA’s request, evaluates progress toward implementing the 2018 decadal survey and recommends actions to keep the program aligned with decadal priorities while preparing for the following study. The report’s central message is clear: NASA’s Earth Science Division is delivering valuable science and data, but the pace of implementing the survey’s recommended new missions has been limited by budget pressures, rising mission costs, pandemic-era slowdowns, and added requirements that were not fully anticipated in the original plan.
Why This Midterm Assessment Matters Now
Earth-observing satellites are a core part of the nation’s climate and hazard intelligence. They help monitor how climate change affects communities, improve weather and climate prediction, and inform operational decisions in areas like wildfire management, water resource conservation, and risk reduction for extreme heat and flooding. As the need for better information on Earth’s interacting systems grows, the ability to deliver sustained, reliable observations becomes more critical, not less. The midterm assessment is therefore less about celebrating past success and more about ensuring the Earth observation program can continue to deliver what science and society increasingly require, even under constraints that make trade-offs unavoidable.
Progress Has Been Strong on Data, Slower on Implementing New Missions
The report acknowledges that NASA has launched innovative, science-driven missions that provide valuable new data and generate excitement across both research and applications communities. These observations support a wide range of societally essential uses, including tracking emissions and methane leaks, sea-level rise, groundwater changes, deforestation, wildfires, ocean dynamics, and glacial hazards. At the same time, the assessment concludes that NASA has made limited progress toward implementing the new missions recommended by the 2018 decadal survey. The report points to several causes, including cost increases, pandemic-related impacts, the expansion of the Landsat program under a relatively flat budget, and insufficient prioritization of the decadal survey’s highest-value missions.
The Core Constraint: Continuity and Innovation Under Flat Budgets
A key theme in the assessment is that NASA cannot be expected to deliver everything the nation wants from Earth observation when funding remains flat while costs and requirements expand. The program faces a structural tension between sustaining long-term measurement continuity and developing new observation capabilities, especially when additional tasks are imposed outside the decadal survey process. The report emphasizes that sustained investment in NASA’s Earth Science Division is essential if the U.S. expects NASA to keep launching new missions, developing innovative instrumentation, and supporting the research community that turns observations into usable science and applications.
A Practical Strategy for Portfolio Management
To manage budgetary pressure, the report recommends launching missions that are close to completion without delay. In contrast, larger missions still in formulation should be descoped or delayed to accommodate increased costs and requirements. The assessment notes that these recommendations broadly align with steps NASA’s Earth Science Division was already taking while the report was being finalized. This strategy aims to preserve near-term value and reduce the risk that a small number of expensive, delayed efforts crowd out the balanced set of observations needed for an Earth system view.
Programmatic Balance and the Landsat Next Challenge
The midterm assessment argues that unanticipated budget changes have affected NASA’s ability to implement the decadal survey and that NASA has not consistently followed the decision rules in the 2018 survey intended to preserve programmatic balance. It highlights Landsat Next as a significant factor because mission scope and budget needs have grown beyond what the decadal survey anticipated, placing pressure on the broader portfolio. The report acknowledges the challenge of meeting Landsat user needs while also supporting the wider Earth system science and applications community, and it recommends that NASA pursue additional funding to cover increases in Landsat Next scope and cost that were not anticipated in the original decadal planning. Without that funding, the assessment warns that Landsat Next could substantially limit resources available to meet other decadal priorities.
Communication and Community Engagement Under Constraints
When budgets tighten and mission plans change, clarity becomes a capability. The report stresses that NASA should seek input from relevant advisory committees and communicate expected program impacts, especially when missions are delayed, descoped, or when solicitation schedules shift. The assessment calls for improved communication with the research community so stakeholders understand the rationale behind decisions and can plan accordingly. This is especially important because the value of Earth observation depends not only on launching satellites but also on enabling scientists, modelers, and applied users to effectively exploit the data.
Partnerships as a Force Multiplier
The report points to NASA’s ongoing engagement with international and commercial partners as a successful way to share mission costs and expand science opportunities. Given the increasing need for external data to meet national climate priorities, the assessment encourages NASA to expand funding opportunities for U.S. investigators to participate in and leverage data from international, interagency, and commercial efforts. This approach can help sustain scientific returns and national capability, even when domestic resources are insufficient to deliver on every priority solely through NASA-led missions.
Preparing for the Next Decadal Survey
Looking ahead, the report recommends that NASA strengthen strategies for diversity, equity, inclusion, and accessibility, including training and mission engagement across career stages. It also encourages better engagement with the Earth system modeling community to clarify observation priorities that improve climate projections and decision support. The assessment further reinforces the need for a strategic framework to address continuity in climate observations of national priority, and it notes that such a framework should consider international and commercial partners where appropriate.
What the Report Signals About the Road Ahead
The midterm assessment reflects a reality that is becoming more pronounced each year: society’s reliance on Earth observations is growing rapidly, but the ability to sustain continuity and expand new capabilities depends on disciplined prioritization, transparent tradeoffs, and adequate investment. The report suggests that NASA can protect both scientific leadership and societal value by preserving balance across its portfolio, following clear decision rules under budget pressure, strengthening communication with stakeholders, and expanding partnerships to deliver more capability than NASA could provide alone.
(Source: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. (2024). Thriving on our changing planet: A midterm assessment of progress toward implementation of the decadal survey. The National Academies Press. https://nap.nationalacademies.org/catalog/27743.)
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