The following post is a review of the study entitled “Quantifying the Impact of Climate Change on Peak Stream Discharge for Watersheds of Varying Sizes in the Coastal Plain of Virginia,” published in the Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, Volume 29, Issue 3. Virginia used it as a case study, employing 29 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) weather stations to understand rainfall across the state.
Unlike traditional approaches that assume stationary precipitation patterns, the study “Quantifying the Impact of Climate Change on Peak Stream Discharge for Watersheds of Varying Sizes in the Coastal Plain of Virginia” takes a novel approach. Climate change disrupts precipitation patterns, thereby challenging existing and future infrastructure designs. Many studies predict increased precipitation due to climate change. However, this unique contribution addresses how these changes affect stream discharge — a crucial factor for infrastructure planning. Therefore, the study evaluates climate change’s impact on rainfall and peak discharge, providing valuable insights for Virginia’s road and bridge infrastructure design. The results indicate that the median increase in rainfall intensity is projected to be 10%–30% by midcentury (2045) and 10%–40% by the century’s end (2085), with larger increases under the high-emission RCP8.5 scenario compared to the moderate-emission RCP4.5 scenario.
Regression analysis correlates peak discharge to watershed size for the midcentury and end-of-century periods. Smaller watersheds (<25 km²) show a significant, size-independent percent increase in peak discharge for a 100-year return period: 39% and 49% for midcentury, and 36% and 52% by century’s end, under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. However, larger watersheds (>25 km²) exhibit a decreased percentage increase in peak discharge as size grows, indicating a dampening effect for larger watersheds in Virginia’s coastal plain. For the largest included watershed (1,700 km²), the increases for a 100-year return period are 14% and 39% by midcentury and 16% and 40% by century’s end. For more details, refer to the complete study: [ASCE Library – Climate Change Impact on Civil Infrastructure] (https://ascelibrary.org/doi/10.1061/JHYEFF.HEENG-6114).
About the Journal of Hydrologic Engineering
“The Journal of Hydrologic Engineering disseminates interdisciplinary information in hydrologic science and engineering. The journal publishes original research and practical applications related to water in natural and built environments. It covers fundamental and applied hydrology and emerging areas (e.g., surface water, vadose zone, groundwater, water quality, snow/ice and glacier, urban/agricultural/forest, and coastal hydrology; hydroinformatics, ecohydrology, hydroclimatology, and socio-hydrology). The journal encourages submissions utilizing analytical, numerical, probabilistic/stochastic, experimental, remote sensing, artificial intelligence (e.g., machine learning), and other data-driven approaches that advance hydrologic science and engineering practices and promote sustainable and resilient engineering solutions to real-world water and environmental problems.”
© 2024 American Society of Civil Engineers. All rights reserved.
(Source: https://ascelibrary.org/doi/10.1061/JHYEFF.HEENG-6114)
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