The following post is part of a series entitled Mining the Future: Climate Risk Intelligence for the Metals and Minerals Industry.
In mining, operational success depends on long-term asset viability and environmental stability. Downscaled regional climate models (RCMs) and scenario planning are essential for anticipating and managing climate-related risks. Unlike global climate models (GCMs), which provide broad insights into global climate behavior, RCMs offer high-resolution projections tailored to specific geographical areas. This localized focus is crucial for the metals and minerals industry, which often works in remote and environmentally sensitive regions where small changes in climate conditions can significantly impact safety, logistics, and productivity.
Regional climate models simulate climate behavior at finer spatial scales, typically 1 to 10 kilometers, by downscaling outputs from GCMs through AI-driven, statistical, and dynamical methods. This increased granularity allows mining companies to understand how global trends like rising temperatures, changing precipitation patterns, and more frequent extreme weather events will manifest at specific sites. For instance, an RCM may indicate a projected 15% decline in annual rainfall in northern Chile by 2040, posing significant water security risks for lithium mining operations in the Atacama Desert. Similarly, a West African bauxite mine may experience heightened cyclone exposure due to shifting oceanic weather systems. By utilizing RCMs, companies can enhance engineering designs, modify maintenance schedules, and plan for future infrastructure needs with far greater accuracy.
Equally important is the integration of scenario planning, an approach that enables mining companies to explore a range of plausible climate futures based on varying greenhouse gas emission trajectories, technological advancements, and policy responses. Scenario planning allows organizations to stress-test their strategies against multiple outcomes, such as a 1.5°C, 2°C, or 4°C warming world, aligned with frameworks like the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) or Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). This process promotes long-term thinking, investment flexibility, and resilience-building across different operational contexts.
Effective climate scenario planning also supports regulatory compliance and meets investor expectations. Disclosure frameworks such as the Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures (TCFD) recommend using scenario analysis to evaluate climate resilience. For mining companies, this means demonstrating how asset portfolios, capital allocation, and supply chains perform under varying climate and policy conditions. Mining firms integrating RCM outputs into scenario analysis can provide credible, site-specific narratives about their readiness to withstand climate stressors and contribute to a low-carbon economy.
Furthermore, scenario planning encourages collaboration across disciplines. Climate scientists, geotechnical engineers, water resource managers, and financial risk analysts must collaborate to convert regional climate data into actionable business intelligence. This teamwork is essential in areas where the reliability of future climate projections is uncertain or where multiple risks, such as drought and wildfire, interact in complex ways.
Ready to get started? To learn more about how ClimaTwin can help you assess the physical and financial impacts of future weather and climate extremes on your infrastructure assets and investment portfolios, please visit www.climatwin.com today.
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