The following post is part of a series entitled Mining the Future: Climate Risk Intelligence for the Metals and Minerals Industry.
As climate change progresses, its physical manifestations will differ significantly by geography, with profound implications for the metals and minerals industry. Mining operations are inherently location-bound and often located in remote, climatically sensitive environments, making geographic climate projections essential for operational planning and asset resilience. Understanding how temperature, precipitation, and extreme weather events are projected to evolve across regions enables companies to anticipate vulnerabilities and customize adaptation strategies accordingly.
Temperature Increases
Mean temperatures are projected to rise across nearly all regions, although the rate and severity of warming will vary. High-latitude regions like northern Canada, Russia, and Scandinavia are anticipated to warm more quickly than the global average due to feedback mechanisms such as melting snow and ice. While warmer temperatures may slightly extend operating seasons in colder climates, they will also hasten permafrost thaw, destabilize infrastructure, and elevate wildfire risk. In tropical and subtropical regions, such as parts of West Africa, Australia, and Southeast Asia, rising temperatures might push working conditions beyond safe limits, posing risks to workforce health and productivity.
Changes in Precipitation Patterns
Projected changes in precipitation are highly variable and specific to each region, with some areas becoming wetter while others become drier. For instance, southern Africa, central Chile, and parts of Australia are expected to face declining rainfall and prolonged dry spells, intensifying water scarcity challenges for mines that depend on surface or groundwater for processing and dust suppression. In contrast, northern Europe, eastern Canada, and parts of Southeast Asia might experience increased rainfall, potentially resulting in higher risks of flooding, erosion, and tailings dam instability. In many regions, precipitation may become more erratic and concentrated in intense storm events, increasing acute and chronic hydrological stress on mining infrastructure.
Extreme Weather Events
The frequency and severity of extreme events, such as heatwaves, cyclones, wildfires, and intense rainfall, are expected to increase globally, with specific risks varying based on geographic location. For example, regions prone to cyclones like northern Australia and coastal West Africa may experience stronger storms with a broader reach, threatening supply chains and access routes. The risk of wildfires is projected to rise in drier areas of western North America, southern Europe, and Australia, which could disrupt operations and damage assets. Meanwhile, low-lying coastal regions in Southeast Asia and the Pacific Islands face increased threats from sea level rise and storm surges, jeopardizing port infrastructure and export logistics.
Geographic Hotspots for Mining Risk
Several regions stand out as climate risk hotspots for mining. In the Andean highlands, reduced glacial melt and altered rainfall patterns could impact water availability for copper and lithium mines. In the Sahel and southern Africa, prolonged droughts and social vulnerability could increase operational and security risks. Arctic mining ventures face new threats from permafrost degradation and heightened shipping hazards due to retreating sea ice. Each region will require context-specific climate intelligence, based on localized models and forward-looking risk assessments.
In conclusion, geographic variability in climate projections requires a differentiated and data-driven approach to mining risk management. By integrating regional climate science into strategic planning, mining companies can better protect their assets, ensure the safety of their workforces, and build resilience in an increasingly unstable climate system.
Ready to get started? To learn more about how ClimaTwin can help you assess the physical and financial impacts of future weather and climate extremes on your infrastructure assets and investment portfolios, please visit www.climatwin.com today.
© 2025 ClimaTwin Corp. ClimaTwin® is a registered trademark of ClimaTwin Corp. The ClimaTwin logos, ClimaTwin Solutions™, and Future-proofing assets today for tomorrow’s climate extremes™ are trademarks of ClimaTwin Corp. All rights reserved.
###