Part of a new industry series Shipping the Future™: Climate Business Intelligence™ For The Maritime Industry
Scenario Analysis & Stress Testing
Uncertainty is the defining characteristic of climate risk. No single forecast can capture the full spectrum of possible futures the maritime industry may face. That is why scenario analysis and stress testing are central to Climate Business Intelligence™, enabling shipping companies, port authorities, and investors to explore a range of climate pathways and assess how each could impact assets, operations, and financial performance.
Exploring Futures with IPCC & SSPs
Climate Business Intelligence™ integrates the latest science from the IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) and the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) to model how different climate and socioeconomic trajectories shape maritime risk. Whether under a moderate emissions pathway (SSP2-4.5) or a high-emissions trajectory (SSP5-8.5), operators gain insights into how hazards such as sea-level rise, extreme heat, and storm surge evolve across time horizons. This scientific foundation ensures that scenario planning is not speculative, but anchored in robust, peer-reviewed data.
Best-, Median-, and Worst-Case Risk Pathways
Scenarios are translated into best-, median-, and worst-case risk pathways, enabling stakeholders to assess the full spectrum of potential impacts.
- Best-Case: Modest warming with incremental hazard increases manageable through adaptive investments.
- Median-Case: Escalating risks that strain O&M budgets and insurance, requiring structural upgrades and business continuity planning.
- Worst-Case: Severe disruptions with high probability of stranded assets, loss of insurability, and systemic trade breakdowns.
By quantifying risk for each pathway, the industry can compare resilience strategies against the most probable.
Ready to get started? To learn how ClimaTwin can help you assess the physical and financial impacts of future weather and climate extremes on your infrastructure assets, capital programs, and investment portfolio, please visit www.climatwin.com today.
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