The following post summarizes the technical paper “An Investigation of Climate Change Effects on Design Wind Speeds along the US East and Gulf Coasts,” authored by Aidan Hintermaier, A.M.ASCE and Ning Lin, A.M.ASCE, and published in the Journal of Structural Engineering, Volume 150, Issue 9.
Tropical cyclone (TC) winds predominantly influence the design wind speeds for much of the eastern United States. With climate change, these winds are expected to increase in intensity. However, the ASCE 7-22 design wind speed maps fail to account for climate change, potentially resulting in many structures being designed with unacceptably high levels of risk.
This study examines (1) the increments in design wind speed attributable to climate change and (2) the consequent risks to structures if climate change is disregarded. Using non-stationary methods and a set of synthetic TCs (1,000–1,500-year simulations) derived from the latest global climate projections (CMIP6) under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), the authors estimated the design wind speeds for US counties impacted by TCs along the Gulf and Atlantic coasts.
The findings indicate that, over the 21st century, the 50-year return period winds are expected to increase by approximately 10% on average along these coasts. Depending on the risk category, design lifetime, and construction date, design wind speeds (targeting lifetime exceedance probability) are anticipated to rise by an average of 3%–6% for all counties studied and by 6%–15% for coastal counties.
(Source: ASCE Library)
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